Today, the Brilliant Realty team attended the CREB Forecast Conference 2026 as a VIP brokerage sponsor, and I wanted to share why that matters for you.
The CREB Forecast Conference is the largest annual gathering of real estate professionals in Calgary and the surrounding region, bringing together nearly 9,000 REALTORS and industry leaders. The purpose of the conference is simple: to provide a clear, data-driven outlook on economic and housing trends that directly impact homeowners, buyers, and investors across Calgary and area.
This conference exists to equip real estate professionals with insights to better serve clients, anticipate market shifts, and guide smarter decisions in the year ahead.
One of the standout presentations came from ATB Financial Chief Economist, Mark Parsons, alongside detailed local insights from CREB’s Chief Economist, Ann-Marie Lurie. Together, they provided a realistic and grounded outlook on what 2026 is shaping up to look like.
Here are the key takeaways, translated into what actually matters for you.
Big-Picture Economic Outlook for 2026
• Mortgage rates are expected to hold steady throughout 2026, creating predictability for buyers and sellers.
• Canada and Alberta are moving into a balanced market, not a downturn. Slower does not mean weaker, it means more stable.
• Alberta’s economy remains resilient, with GDP growth forecasted at 2.1% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027.
• The labour market is stabilizing after the shock of rapid population growth. Both population and job growth remain positive but are now healthier.
• Alberta’s oil exports are increasing, even as overall oil and gas investment shifts toward downstream industries.
• The US economy is being supported primarily by investments in artificial intelligence rather than tariffs, reducing broader economic risk.
• Previously feared risks such as Venezuelan crude were identified as less threatening than expected.
What This Means for Housing in Calgary
• We are transitioning from a strong seller’s market into a more balanced environment, which is expected to be the new normal.
• There is no collapse in demand. Sales are slower but still remain above long-term historical trends.
• Calgary’s population growth is forecasted at +1.3% in 2026, down from +3.0% in 2025, easing pressure on housing demand.
• Housing starts hit record highs in 2025 and are now expected to pull back in 2026, which should help stabilize supply and pricing.
• Resale supply is tightening slightly, while new home inventory, particularly rentals, has increased.
• Rental supply is rising, vacancy rates are increasing, and rent growth is cooling, leading more tenants to consider transitioning into homeownership.
• Apartments are expected to see the largest slowdown in sales activity, while detached homes remain relatively protected, with limited downward pressure on pricing.
Local Market Highlights
• Calgary and Edmonton have significantly outperformed Toronto and Vancouver.
• Most surrounding communities saw price growth in 2025, with Airdrie being the only exception.
• Inner City, NW, NE, and SE are experiencing the highest number of housing starts.
• Rental vacancy rates are highest in the Inner City and NW, and lowest in the SE.
• The NE has seen the most price adjustment, largely driven by increased supply.
Risks and Opportunities Ahead
Upside potential includes faster investment if pipeline development advances, emissions caps are adjusted, or clean electricity regulations are revised.
Downside risks include weaker commodity prices, trade renegotiations, or excessive supply growth.
The Bottom Line
Calgary is not slowing because it is weak. It is normalizing after several years of exceptional growth. A balanced market creates better decision-making, stronger negotiations, and more opportunity for buyers, sellers, and investors who understand the landscape.